Airlines Trim 2025 Profit Forecast Over Trade Tensions, Supply Woes

Global airlines slightly reduced their 2025 industry-wide profit forecast on Monday, citing trade tensions and declining consumer confidence, while also criticizing "unacceptable" delays in jetliner deliveries that have hampered their growth plans, Shivansh Tiwary and Tim Hepher reported for Reuters.

Despite the trimmed forecast, airline profits are still projected to rise from $32.4 billion in 2024, buoyed by lower oil prices and record passenger volumes.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) now expects global airlines to post a combined profit of $36 billion this year—down slightly from the previous forecast of $36.6 billion issued in December, before U.S. President Donald Trump took office.

Since then, Trump has launched a trade war and tightened enforcement of U.S. border controls.

Despite the trimmed forecast, airline profits are still projected to rise from $32.4 billion in 2024, buoyed by lower oil prices and record passenger volumes.

IATA released the closely watched projections—which often reflect broader economic trends—at its annual meeting of more than 300 member airlines in New Delhi.

“Earning a $36 billion profit is significant. But that equates to just $7.20 per passenger per segment,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in a statement. He noted that this slim margin leaves airlines vulnerable to future demand shocks or new taxes, as the industry stabilizes following a sharp post-pandemic rebound.