AMRO Trims 2023 PHL Growth Outlook

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) stated that Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to fall slightly below the government's target for this year.

The moderation to 5.9% growth in 2023 is due to high base effects and weaker external demand before edging up to 6.5% in 2024 as that figure recovers. I Photo: ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

AMRO Group Head and Principal Economist Runchana Pongsaparn said, "The Philippines' economic growth is projected to moderate to 5.9% in 2023 due to high base effects and weaker external demand before edging up to 6.5% in 2024 as external demand recovers."

Pongsaparn, who was part of the AMRO team that visited Manila from August 29 to September 8 for its annual consultation, also observed, "Domestic demand is expected to remain robust, supported by continued improvement in labor market conditions, lower inflation, robust overseas remittances, and higher government infrastructure spending."

The think tank's latest 2023 GDP forecast is lower than the 6.2% it provided in its Regional Economic Outlook Report in July.

It also falls below the government's 6-7% GDP target. AMRO has maintained its Philippine growth forecast for 2024 at 6.5%, anticipating a recovery in external demand.

This forecast is at the lower end of the government's 6.5-8% target for next year. The think tank noted that the Philippine economy continued to show strong growth momentum in the first half of 2023. Philippine GDP expanded by a weaker-than-expected 4.3% in the second quarter, bringing first-semester growth to 5.3%.

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