BSP: Consumers Pessimistic In Q1

Filipino consumers became more pessimistic about the country’s economy in the first quarter of the year, citing faster increases in the prices of goods and services, declining incomes, and fewer job opportunities.

The CI for the year-ahead outlook remained unchanged at 12.4%, reflecting continued optimism among consumers.

The latest Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that the overall consumer confidence index (CI) dropped to -13.0% in Q1 2025, down from -11.1% in the previous quarter and -10.9% in Q1 2024.

A negative CI indicates that more respondents are pessimistic than optimistic.

In addition to their current sentiment, consumers were also asked about their expectations for the next quarter and the following 12 months. The results showed that sentiment for the next quarter reverted to negative territory, with the CI falling to -0.5% from 4.2% in the previous quarter and 2.7% in Q1 2024.

The BSP noted that apart from concerns about rising prices, lower income, and limited job opportunities, recent political developments have also weighed on consumer sentiment due to their perceived negative impact on government service delivery.

Nevertheless, consumers expressed optimism for the next 12 months, anticipating increased and higher income, more job availability, salary increases, and stable prices.

The CI for the year-ahead outlook remained unchanged at 12.4%, reflecting continued optimism among consumers.

“Consumer confidence has been strongly influenced by stable inflation and favorable labor market conditions.

Accordingly, consumer sentiment would benefit from coordinated efforts across relevant government agencies and the private sector to address inflationary pressures and support employment,” the BSP said.

By income group:

• Low- and high-income groups became more pessimistic in Q1 2025.

  
  

• Middle-income group sentiment remained largely unchanged.

  
  
  
  

For Q2 2025:

• Sentiment improved slightly among low-income respondents,

  
  

• Declined among middle-income respondents, and

  
  

• Turned pessimistic among high-income respondents.

  
  

For the next 12 months:

• Low-income group sentiment remained stable,

  
  

• Middle-income group outlook became more optimistic, while

  
  

• High-income group sentiment turned less optimistic.

In response to the CES results, the BSP reaffirmed its commitment to its core mandates, including keeping inflation manageable.

Based on the BSP’s latest estimates, inflation is expected to remain within the 2% to 4% target range through 2027 — a level that supports investments and job creation. The Q1 2025 CES was conducted from March 7 to 19, 2025.

The quarterly survey samples around 5,000 households nationwide and covers three components: overall economic condition, family financial situation, and family income.

The CES results are among the key indicators monitored by the BSP in its monetary policy decisions.