California Braces For Potentially Historic El Niño As Newsom Declares Emergency

California is preparing for potentially severe weather impacts from a strengthening El Niño that federal forecasters expect to become very strong during the fall and winter, Andrew Friedman reported for CNN.

California officials are preparing for potential heavy rain, flooding, landslides and coastal impacts as a very strong El Niño develops in the Pacific.

The current event has similarities to previous strong El Niños, including those of 1982-83 and 1997-98, which brought substantial rainfall to California. But scientists caution that past El Niño events do not provide a precise forecast of what will happen this winter.

NOAA notes that stronger El Niños generally increase the likelihood of characteristic impacts, but do not guarantee specific outcomes.

NOAA's Sept. 10 forecast gave El Niño a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.

For October through December, NOAA estimated a 75% chance of a historic event exceeding the strength of previous El Niños in its record dating to 1950.

California could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain, strong winds, flooding, landslides, debris flows, large waves and coastal flooding, particularly during high tides.

NOAA has noted that the combination of El Niño and rising sea levels can increase high-tide flooding risks along the West Coast.

Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Sept. 21 to allow California agencies to prepare resources and respond more quickly to potential winter storms and other El Niño-related impacts.

The proclamation directs agencies to stage flood-fighting equipment and supplies and prepares the California National Guard to support flood response, search-and-rescue, engineering and logistics missions if needed.

California officials are therefore treating the forecast as a preparedness issue rather than a certainty that particular locations will experience catastrophic flooding.

The state's emergency declaration is intended to put resources in place before the most significant winter weather arrives.