DRILLS BY US, CHINA RAISE FEARS OF TAIWAN CONFLICT

Numerous Chinese and US military exercises, Taiwan missiles tracking Chinese fighters and plummeting China-US ties make for a heady cocktail of tension that is raising fears of conflict touched off by a crisis over Taiwan, Ben Blanchard and Yew Lun Tian reported for Reuters late on August 26, 2020.

In the last three weeks, China has announced four separate exercises along its coast, from the Bohai Gulf in the north to the East and Yellow Seas and South China Sea, along with other exercises it said were aimed at “the current security situation across the Taiwan Strait.”

Meanwhile Taiwan, claimed by China as its “sacred” territory, said its surface-to-air missiles had tracked approaching Chinese fighters - details Taiwan does not normally give - as US Health Secretary Alex Azar was visiting the island this month. Addressing the Chinese exercises, Taiwan’s defense ministry said on Tuesday the closer Chinese jets get to the island the “more actively” Taipei would respond, though it would “not escalate conflict” nor “trigger an incident.”

The United States sent another warship through the Taiwan Strait this month, a few days after a US carrier group conducted an exercise in the disputed South China Sea, and this week China complained a US spy plane had observed Chinese live-fire exercises. Chinese military expert Ni Lexiong, a retired professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said it was very rare and possibly the first time multiple Chinese exercises were taking place at the same time. “By simultaneously conducting drills in the three seas, it means China is testing its ability to fight enemies coming from three directions at the same time - for example from Taiwan, from Japan and from the US from the south,” he said. “Historically, frequent drills are a clear predictor of war.” Taiwan-based security and diplomatic sources say the chances of “firing off a shot while polishing the gun” - a Chinese saying for an accidental encounter setting off a broader conflict - are rising mainly because of increased US and Chinese military activity in the region.