Fed Divided on Timing of Interest Rate Cuts

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 meeting reveal growing internal disagreement over the timing and scale of potential rate cuts this year, Barron’s Daily’s Nicole Goodkind and Janet H. Cho reported.

President Trump has continued to pressure the Fed, calling the current rate “3 points too high.”

The June dot plot showed that 10 FOMC members forecast two cuts in 2025, while nine predicted fewer.

A minority argued for no cuts at all, warning that inflation could reaccelerate—especially in light of new tariffs. Still, some officials said that if current trends hold, a cut could come “as soon as the next meeting” on July 29–30.

Those likely in favor include Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, who have both publicly backed a possible July cut.

However, a robust June jobs report has led markets to expect no action this month. According to the CME FedWatch tool, futures trading shows a 66% probability of a cut in September.

President Trump has continued to pressure the Fed, calling the current rate “3 points too high” and blaming Powell for adding $360 billion to the annual cost of refinancing the U.S. debt.