FedEx Worried About Its Q3 Financial Report

FedEx’s fiscal third-quarter report will be closely watched as a bellwether of economic activity, offering early insights into consumer demand amid tensions in the Middle East.

If FedEx meets analysts’ third-quarter estimates, it will need to generate fourth-quarter earnings per share of about $5.60 to reach the midpoint of its full-year guidance. (Photo: FedEx Facebook)

Investors had expected a freight recovery in 2026, but that was before the Iran conflict, soaring oil prices, and the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, Al Root and Alex Kozul-Wright reported for Barron’s Daily.

For the quarter, Wall Street is expecting earnings per share of $4.15 on revenue of $23.5 billion.

A year earlier, FedEx reported fiscal 2025 third-quarter earnings per share of $4.51 on sales of $22.2 billion.

For the full year, which ends in May, FedEx expects earnings per share to range from $17.80 to $19.00.

If the company meets analysts’ third-quarter estimates, it will need to generate fourth-quarter earnings per share of about $5.60 to reach the midpoint of its full-year guidance.

Wall Street currently projects fourth-quarter earnings per share of $5.93.

Recently, however, threats to the freight industry have emerged—namely global conflict and $100-per-barrel oil prices. These pressures have been reflected in FedEx’s stock performance.

Since the onset of fighting in Iran, FedEx shares have fallen about 9% through Wednesday’s trading.

Meanwhile, the company is seeking to recover funds after the Supreme Court’s February decision declaring the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs illegal. Any recovered funds would likely be passed on to customers, who ultimately bore the cost of the tariffs.