Finlandization to End Russia’s Ukraine Invasion a Poor Precedent: Expert

As part of the US and European push toward a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war, Kyiv has been under mounting pressure to accept territorial concessions.

Russia’s leadership has made clear its appetite for further conquest in Ukraine and beyond. (Photo: Sergey Bystro Flickr)

Attention has focused on a precedent for a land-for-peace deal with Moscow: the 1944 Finnish-Soviet armistice that followed two wars between the two neighbors.

Helsinki transferred substantial Finnish territories to Moscow and was never attacked again, Kristi Raik, director of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), wrote for Foreign Policy.

The example has moved to the center of the debate, with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and The Economist presenting it as a positive precedent.

At the annual Yalta European Strategy conference hosted by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation in Kyiv this weekend, historian Niall Ferguson praised Finlandization before the assembled security elite.

The 1939 Nazi-Soviet pact that divided Eastern Europe between the two powers had assigned Finland to the Soviet sphere of influence.

When Soviet forces invaded in late November 1939, the Finns fought back. With the 1944 Moscow Armistice, Finland gave up close to 12% of its territory while securing peace and maintaining independence.

However, Finland is more relevant as a warning than as a model. The parallel is questionable: compared to Ukraine, Finland was a small country of peripheral strategic interest for Moscow.

Unlike Finland in 1944, Ukraine is now the sole focus of Russian war activity. In 1944, the Soviet Union sought to end a war; today, Russia’s leadership has made clear its appetite for further conquest in Ukraine and beyond.

Ukraine, not Finland, holds a critical, even mythical, place in Russia’s imperial worldview. Moscow never questioned the existence of a Finnish nation.

An independent Finland was no obstacle to Soviet ambitions elsewhere, but an independent Ukraine is a direct blow to Russia’s efforts to restore its Soviet-era empire.

A strong and well-armed Ukraine is therefore a precondition for any Finland-style peace to hold. Deterring Russia will be far more demanding in Ukraine, requiring serious Ukrainian armament, security guarantees, and long-term Western support—resources Finland did not enjoy after 1944.