German Study Finds 96% of Hiked U.S. Tariffs are Paid by Americans

A study by the Kiel Institute found that US tariffs are largely paid by American importers and consumers, with foreign exporters bearing only around 4 percent of the cost.

The research challenges Trump’s assertions that tariff costs would be paid by other countries and overseas exporters. (Photo: Business Wire) 

The findings contradict former President Donald Trump’s claims that Americans are not paying for tariffs, Kelsey Vlamis reported for Business Insider.

“American importers and consumers bear nearly all the cost,” the researchers said. The study, published Monday, noted that the $200 billion increase in customs revenue raised by the US government in 2025 was a “tax paid almost entirely by Americans.”

The research challenges Trump’s assertions that tariff costs would be paid by other countries and overseas exporters.

His aggressive tariff policy, launched last year, imposed additional duties on dozens of trade partners, including China, India, and the European Union.

The Kiel Institute examined more than 25 million shipment records worth nearly $4 trillion between January 2024 and November 2025. Researchers found a “near-complete pass-through” of tariffs, with US import prices rising almost one-for-one with tariff increases while trade volumes contracted.

The findings echo earlier research from Harvard Business School and Yale University’s Budget Lab. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and Bank of America also said last year that Americans were bearing the cost of the tariffs.