Japan Projected to Fall to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings by 2027

Japan's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to be overtaken by India and the United Kingdom in 2027, pushing the country from fourth to sixth place in the global rankings, according to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, Kyodo News reported.

Japan's nominal GDP is projected to rank sixth globally in 2027, behind India and the United Kingdom, according to the International Monetary Fund's October outlook.

Japan has ranked fourth since 2023, behind the United States, China and Germany.

The IMF's latest projections suggest that the country's position will weaken further as the yen remains under pressure against the US dollar and economic growth continues at a relatively modest pace.

The IMF projects Japan's nominal GDP at $4.3419 trillion in 2026 and $4.4676 trillion in 2027.

India's nominal GDP is forecast to reach $4.5211 trillion in 2027, placing it fourth globally, while the United Kingdom is projected to reach $4.4889 trillion, taking fifth place.

The revised outlook brings forward the expected change in rankings. In its April report, the IMF had projected that Britain would overtake Japan in 2029.

Exchange-rate movements are an important factor in the latest projections because nominal GDP rankings are calculated in US dollars.

A weaker yen reduces the dollar value of Japan's economic output when converted from its domestic currency.

The IMF projects Japan's real economic growth at 0.7% in both 2026 and 2027. India's economy, measured on a fiscal-year basis, is expected to expand by 7% in both years.

The IMF has attributed India's strong outlook to resilient domestic demand and robust services activity, helping it remain among the world's fastest-growing major economies.

Britain's economy is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.

Japan previously held the world's second-largest economy ranking before being overtaken by China in 2010. Germany then moved ahead of Japan in 2023, leaving Japan in fourth place.

The latest projections underscore how differences in growth and currency movements can reshape international GDP rankings. They do not, however, mean that Japan's economy is shrinking in absolute terms or that GDP rankings alone determine living standards.