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JAPAN’S AIM FOR STRIKE CAPABILITY COULD RAISE TENSION IN EAST ASIA

As Japan considers updating its missile defense policy, including a proposal to approve enemy base strike capabilities to deter attacks, experts warn such a decision could raise tensions in East Asia and backfire on the country itself, Reito Kaneko reported for Kyodo news agency on September 5, 2020.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last month proposed that Japan consider "possession of the ability to intercept ballistic and other missiles even in the territory of an opponent," a controversial suggestion in the light of Japan's war-renouncing Constitution and its exclusively defense-oriented policy. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to call for deepening discussion of the proposal before he steps down later this month, and Yoshihide Suga, Abe's right-hand man and frontrunner in the race to succeed him as LDP president and the country's premier, is almost certain to follow Abe's position.


"This kind of discussion is inevitable given recent military expansions in China and North Korea," said Takeshi Yuzawa, a professor of international relations of East Asia at Hosei University. But he also said Japan needs "to carefully examine the scope of its military acquisitions in the light of the effectiveness of its overall deterrence strategy." He added: "Chinese armaments are mainly focused on the United States. But if Tokyo acquires capabilities to attack enemy bases, Beijing might more aggressively strengthen its offensive capabilities targeting Japan, depending on its new capability." He warned this may drag Japan "into a dangerous arms race with China that will eventually force Japan to consider the acquisition of offensive weapons that go beyond its financial capacity, let alone its constitutional limitations."


If Japan wants to have strike capabilities, it needs to strengthen not only long-range missiles but also detection capabilities, said Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki, a professor of international relations and security of East Asia at Waseda University. "Other countries would strengthen their capacities to counter Japan's move, and East Asia would have to seek a (military) balance in a state of higher tensions," Ueki stressed. "Japan should continue to focus on developing missile defense systems (rather than acquiring strike capabilities)," she said. "In addition to the US, it is important for Japan to cooperate with South Korea, Australia and other countries to create a defense-dominant world where attacks are not worth the cost."


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