Japanese Farmers Fear Rice Price Collapse After Supply Rebounds

Nearly two years after the so-called "Reiwa-era rice upheaval" began in the summer of 2024—triggering shortages and soaring prices—Japan is now facing a rice surplus, leaving farmers concerned about falling prices, Mineichiro Yamakoshi reported for Mainichi Japan.

Japanese farmers brace for lower rice prices as supplies recover following the 2024–2025 shortage.

The rice shortages that began in 2024 were attributed to increased demand from inbound tourism, panic buying following a Nankai Trough earthquake advisory issued in August 2024, and poor yields from the 2023 harvest due to extreme heat.

At the height of the crisis in January 2025, the average retail price of rice exceeded 4,400 yen (about US$27) per five-kilogram bag.

Makoto Morioka, 74, who operates an agricultural production corporation in Oshu, Iwate Prefecture, recalled that the local agricultural cooperative's purchase price rose to as much as 31,000 yen (about US$191) for 60 kilograms of brown rice.

By March 2026, however, private rice stocks in Iwate Prefecture had reached about 120,000 metric tons—nearly double the level recorded a year earlier.

The increase was attributed to stronger yields from the 2025 harvest and declining consumer demand following the earlier surge in prices.

Farmer Katsuhiro Hosokawa said sharp fluctuations in purchase prices have made long-term planning difficult. With new rice expected to enter the market in September, farmers anticipate further price declines.

Before the rice shortage, agricultural cooperatives typically purchased 60 kilograms of brown rice for around 10,000 yen (about US$62). Morioka noted that rising costs for fertilizer, pesticides, and farm machinery have outpaced inflation, adding, "Even 20,000 yen now means a loss."