Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro in Polls Ahead of Brazil's First-Round Vote

A series of polls released Saturday showed Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva slightly ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro before Sunday's first-round presidential vote, with a close race expected in a potential runoff between the leftist incumbent and his right-wing challenger, Reuters reported.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Campaigns Ahead Of The First-Round Presidential Vote Against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. [Photo: Lula Facebook]

If no candidate wins more than 50% of the valid votes — which exclude blank and null ballots — the two leading candidates will advance to a second-round runoff on Oct. 25.

The CNT/MDA survey showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 47.8% to 42.1% in the first round, followed by Augusto Cury with 3.6%, Ronaldo Caiado with 3.4%, Renan Santos with 1.7% and Romeu Zema with 0.9%.

In a potential runoff, Lula led Bolsonaro 47.3% to 43.1%.

MDA surveyed 2,007 people from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Datafolha's survey showed Lula with 45% and Bolsonaro with 42% in the first round, followed by Caiado at 4%, Santos at 3%, Cury at 3% and Zema at 1%. In its runoff simulation, Lula led Bolsonaro 47% to 46%.

Datafolha surveyed 4,006 people from Oct. 2 to Oct. 3, with a margin of error of two percentage points.

A separate Quaest poll put Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% in the first round.

In its runoff scenario, Bolsonaro led Lula 44% to 42%. The survey interviewed 3,702 people from Oct. 2 to Oct. 3 and had a margin of error of two percentage points.

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll also showed a close race, with Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 44.1% in the first round. In its runoff simulation, Lula led Bolsonaro 47.6% to 47.4%.