Mark Carney Emerges as Nobel Peace Prize Contender in Prediction Markets

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has emerged as one of the people being discussed in prediction markets for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, while President Donald Trump has repeatedly complained that he has not received the award, Rachel Dobkin reported for The Independent.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has been listed among prediction-market contenders for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. [Photo: Mark Carney X]

Carney had a 14% implied probability of winning the Nobel Peace Prize on the Kalshi prediction market on Monday, according to the report.

Other names being discussed included Doctors Without Borders and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms. These figures represent prediction-market prices rather than an official assessment by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

The Canadian leader has pushed back against Trump amid an escalating trade dispute between the United States and Canada.

Carney said during talks last month that attempts to restrict Canada’s ability to make trade agreements with other countries were unacceptable and raised questions about Canadian sovereignty.

Carney also received a standing ovation for a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, where he criticized proposed US tariffs and defended Canada’s economic interests.

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is scheduled to be announced on Oct. 9.