Market Not Biting Trump Vow to End His Iran War

If all it takes is hearing the promise of “very soon” to trigger a $40 swing in global crude markets at one piint, then perhaps it is safe to say investors simply are not prepared for the headline risk generated by the US-Iran conflict.

Trump's hint that the war will be over “very soon" is the message investors appear to be clinging to. Meanwhile, casualties on both sides continue to mount (Photo: The White House)

Those words also reversed a 100-point decline in the S&P 500 and pulled most major indices back into the green, Barron’s Daily reported.

President Donald Trump of late has delivered a host of mixed messages on US objectives in Iran, the extent of the damage caused by 10 days of strikes in the region, and the status of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

But his hint that the war will be over “very soon,” delivered from his resort in Doral, Florida, is the message investors appear to be clinging to. Perhaps they are right to.

Trump’s crisis playbook has been remarkably predictable during his time in the White House: a major policy move, such as tariffs, is followed by market upheaval, then a softening of the stance from the White House, and finally a significant market rebound.

Monday’s massive spike in oil prices, which pushed US crude to its highest level in nearly four years just months before midterm elections likely to focus on affordability, then tumbled nearly 25% after the president signaled his desire to end the conflict.

The market reaction followed that familiar pattern.