No Evidence China Is Cornering U.S. Soybeans as Promised by Xi

With just one and a half months to go before the year ends, China still hasn’t ramped up purchases of US soybeans under a trade agreement made with President Donald Trump a few weeks ago, Jason Ma reported for Fortune.

China’s soybean processors have purchased about 40 MMT from South America this season and reportedly “have zero financial incentive” to buy more US soybeans.

After he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a regional economic summit in South Korea, the White House said Beijing committed to buying at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of US soybeans during the final two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028.

That pledge came after China hadn’t placed any orders for US soybeans this harvest season amid the trade war with Trump, creating panic among farmers who had relied on the world’s second-largest economy as their top export market.

Beijing has turned to Brazil and Argentina for soybeans, which are also cheaper because they don’t face retaliatory Chinese tariffs. Now, China has imported so much supply from South America that it has a glut of soybeans.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said in a note that the latest data from China “provided no evidence to support the notion that there will be a substantial increase in state purchases to meet the 12 MMT commitment for calendar year 2025 as stated by the White House.”

China’s soybean processors have purchased about 40 MMT from South America this season and “have zero financial incentive” to buy more US soybeans, he added.