Odds of Government Shutdown Soar to 70% on Polymarket and Kalshi

The odds of a US government shutdown surged from roughly 10% to the high 70s on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as Democrats vowed to oppose a bill funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) until reforms to immigration enforcement are enacted, Bryan Metzger reported for Business Insider.

Lawmakers are considering breaking apart a package of six funding bills scheduled for a Senate vote later this week.

Just days earlier, it appeared the US would avoid a repeat of the government shutdown seen in the fall. That changed after federal agents fatally shot Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.

Within hours of the shooting on Saturday, shutdown odds jumped sharply on prediction markets.

Democratic senators now say they will not vote to fund DHS—which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Border Patrol—unless changes to immigration enforcement are made.

While Republicans control the Senate, they hold just 53 seats, meaning Democratic support is required to overcome the chamber’s 60-vote filibuster threshold.

“What’s happening in Minnesota is appalling—and unacceptable in any American city,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement on Saturday.

“Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.”

Lawmakers are considering breaking apart a package of six funding bills scheduled for a Senate vote later this week. Even if they do, a brief shutdown over the weekend appears likely.

To avoid a shutdown after midnight late Friday, the Senate would need to pass the six-bill package funding DHS, the military, multiple federal agencies, and a broad range of government programs and grants.