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PANDEMIC TO COST WORLD ECONOMY $82-T IN 5 YEARS: CAMBRIDGE STUDY

The COVID-19 pandemic could cost the global economy a “nightmarish” $82-trillion in five years, a study conducted by the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge warns.

In a story written by Shalini Nagarajan for Business Insider on May 20, 2020 (May 21 in Manila), she said that if a speedy recovery is achieved, an "optimistic loss" of $3.3 trillion is likely but the Center for Risk Studies (CRS) says the damage could be in the vicinity of $82-trillion. The experts said the amount cited represents just how much potential growth the economy could lose if it slipped into a prolonged depression. "The world economy is still in the midst of the 'full stop' described by Daniel Defoe some 300 years ago," Keith Wade, chief economist at UK fund manager Schroders, said in a separate note.


These cost projections are based on 2019 gross domestic product volumes which stood at $69.2 trillion for the world's 19 leading economies. The contrast, in comparison, is visibly massive. While the lost value of $82 trillion is the worst case scenario, the center’s consensus projection was a loss of some $26.8 trillion, or 5.3%, of global GDP in the coming five years.


To put a figure on the potential impact to some of the leading global economies, the following five-year loss projections added more context (All % 's represent five-year GDP estimates): US: Best case: $550 billion (0.4% of GDP). Worst case: $19.9 trillion (13.6%); UK: Best case: $96 billion (0.46%). Worst case: $2.5 trillion (16.8%), and; China: Best case: $1 trillion (0.9%). Worst case: $19 trillion (16.5%.). #COVID19

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