Russia’s Economy Is Weak, but Putin Won’t Rush to the Negotiating Table

Russia’s economy is facing mounting pressure from high inflation, a widening budget deficit driven partly by massive military spending, and declining oil and gas revenues, Lauren Kent reported for CNN Business.

Western sanctions have failed to inflict enough damage on Russia’s energy-driven economy to alter Moscow’s strategy,

Economic growth has slowed sharply. Still, analysts say the worsening outlook is unlikely to push President Vladimir Putin toward negotiations to end the war in Ukraine anytime soon.

“If you look at the economy itself, it’s not going to be that ultimate straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“It’s not catastrophic. It’s manageable.”

Looking ahead three to five years, Russia could continue fighting at the current pace, Snegovaya said, noting that reliable projections beyond that timeframe are difficult.

Some exiled, anti-Putin Russian economists believe the war of attrition could last even longer, arguing that the Kremlin’s war-making capacity is largely “unimpeded by economic constraints.”

Western sanctions have failed to inflict enough damage on Russia’s energy-driven economy to alter Moscow’s strategy, Richard Connolly of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told CNN.

“As long as Russia is pumping oil and selling it at a fairly reasonable price, they have enough money to muddle along,” said the senior fellow in international security.