Share of Firms Seeing Japan Growth in 2026 Slips to 70%

Seventy percent of major Japanese firms believe the domestic economy will grow in 2026, as high prices and aggressive U.S. tariff policies are seen as offsetting the positive impact of wage hikes and an expected recovery in consumer spending, a Kyodo News survey showed, Mainichi Japan reported.

No companies projected a more upbeat outlook, such as an economic “expansion.”

In the survey of 114 companies conducted between late November and mid-December, 70% said they expect “moderate” growth, down from 78% who held the same view for 2025.

No companies projected a more upbeat outlook, such as an economic “expansion.”

Among respondents who were relatively optimistic about the economy, the most frequently cited reason was a recovery in personal consumption, selected by 71%, followed by the positive impact of wage hikes, cited by 69%.

Meanwhile, 29 firms, or one-quarter of those surveyed, said they expect the economy to remain flat. One company projected a moderate contraction.