Tariffs Could Send Rising Coffee Prices Even Higher

How many price hikes are Americans willing to stomach for their morning coffee? Roasted coffee prices surged 12.7% in June compared to a year earlier, according to inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), while instant coffee saw a 16.3% increase.

Demand in the U.S.—where Americans drink more coffee each day than bottled water—isn’t likely to go anywhere but up.

The retail price for a pound of ground coffee last month was $8.13—up about $1 since January, Emma Ockerman reported for Yahoo Finance.

Still, demand in the U.S.—where Americans drink more coffee each day than bottled water—isn’t likely to go anywhere but up. Instead, coffee drinkers may want to prepare for a future where prices rise even further due to a combination of tariffs, rising global consumption, and climate change.

In April, President Trump implemented a universal 10% baseline tariff, with higher “reciprocal” tariffs set to take effect on August 1.

Trump has threatened Brazil—the world’s top coffee producer—with a 50% tariff, while U.S. imports from Vietnam, the second-largest producer, could face a 20% tariff, he has said.

Last year, global coffee prices increased 38.8% over 2023 levels, according to a report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.

The report attributed the 2023–2024 increases largely to adverse weather conditions in key coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam, as well as rising shipping costs.

“Brazil is the biggest coffee producer in the world,” said Barrett. “When you get a hot, dry period in the Brazilian coffee-growing regions, that depresses supply. We saw that last year.”