THE ECONOMIST: DEMS HAVE 67% CHANCE OF WINNING SENATE CONTROL

A statistical model crafted by The Economist gives the Democrats a 67% chance of flipping the US Senate and sees 86% odds that Joe Biden will likely win the Nov. 3 presidential race.

“If the fight for the Senate gets less attention than it deserves, one reason may be that it is hard to analyze. There are no nationwide Senate polls. Instead there are 35 separate contests, in different states with different candidates (the other 65 seats are not up for election this year). Some races are polled often; others not at all. Even the rules can vary: Louisiana and Georgia use a two-round system with a run-off; Maine recently adopted ranked-choice voting,” the British magazine reported.

The Economist said their statistical model gives the Democrats a 67% chance of flipping the Senate, which has 35 separate state races, lower than the 86% chance for Biden to win the White House. It sees the Democrats gaining eight seats in the House, with two flips are virtually assured due to court-ordered redistricting in North Carolina. Democrats are clear favorites in two seats. In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly has a 90% chance of winning against Martha McSally, who lost a close Senate race in 2018. The Democrats’ other relatively easy flip is in Colorado, which is fast becoming a Democratic state. Their candidate, John Hickenlooper, is a centrist former governor with 80% chance of beating Republican Cory Gardner. In North Carolina, Cal Cunningham, a former state legislator, soldier and businessman, is polling well ahead of unpopular Thom Tillis. Sara Gideon, the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, is forecast to have a 70% chance to snatch he seat of Sen. Susan Collins. In Iowa, Democratic Theresa Greenfield has a three-point lead over Sen. Joni Ernst.

“Democrats are also nearly tied in polls in the two Georgia seats up for election, and, surprisingly, in the far redder states of South Carolina, Kansas and Montana—though their candidate in Montana is Steve Bullock, a popular sitting governor, making his strength a bit more predictable. Democrats also have an outside shot in little-watched races in Alaska and Texas,” The Economist concluded.

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