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The model developed by The Economist that works daily shows that right now, Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the Electoral College, putting his chances at around 5 in 6 or 85% and winning anywhere from 229 to 412 electoral college votes. For popular votes, Biden’s chances are better than 19 in 20 or 97%.
For Trump, The Economist on June 23, 2020 said the incumbent US President will only gain 1 in 6 or 14% and the range of electoral college votes for him is from 126 to 309. The probability of an electoral college tie is 1%. He is likely to win 1 in 20 of popular votes or 3%.
Both candidates have to win 270 electoral college votes to take the US presidency.
“Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day. Our model combines the national prediction with polls and political-economic factors at the state level. We take into account that states that are similar are likely to move with each other,” The Economist said.