This Month Will Be Worse Than Usual for Stocks: Barron’s Daily

September is often rough for stocks, but several looming risks are adding to investor anxiety this year, Adam Clark reported for Barron’s Daily.

September is already statistically the weakest month for S&P 500 returns over the past 75 years.

Legal battles over tariffs and the Federal Reserve are front and center. After a federal appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal, the White House has until Oct. 14 to appeal to the Supreme Court.

Even if backup plans are in place, a loss could mean more upheaval for companies already reworking supply chains to adapt to import levies.

The Supreme Court may also be asked to rule on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook.

Markets expect a quarter-point rate cut this month, but concerns over the Fed’s independence are one reason gold futures are hitting record highs. Investors fear a Trump-dominated Fed may be eager to slash rates aggressively, weakening the dollar.

Friday’s jobs report will also be pivotal. The unemployment rate is forecast to reach a nearly four-year high, and the update comes just weeks after the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) chief—another blow to agency independence.

September is already statistically the weakest month for S&P 500 returns over the past 75 years.

Combined with political and economic uncertainty, the seasonal decline could be sharper than usual, though momentum from the summer rally may offer some cushion.