Trade, Legal Experts: There’s an 80% Chance High Court Will Dump Trump’s Tariffs

The Supreme Court (SC) will likely agree with lower courts that ruled President Donald Trump cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs, according to experts surveyed by JPMorgan, Jason Ma reported for Fortune.

Trade and legal experts said the odds that the high court will rule against the broad tariffs targeted by the Trump administration are 70%–80%.

The bank hosted a conference in London last month and, in a note on Monday, summarized highlights from a session on Trump’s trade policies.

Trade and legal experts said the odds that the high court will rule against the Trump administration are 70%–80% and expect a decision by the end of the year, according to the note, which added that the justices may not follow traditional ideological lines.

In the latest decision in August, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said its ruling would not take effect until Oct. 14 to give the Trump administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court.

“While the sitting three liberal justices are expected to oppose IEEPA tariffs, Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett — both with pro-business leanings — may also side against. Kavanaugh is considered the swing vote and has voted with the majority 90% of the time,” the note said.

“Legal experts point out that none of Trump’s three appointed justices is distinctively ‘Trumpy,’ and they have been less predictable than Republicans had hoped.”

Trump cited IEEPA when he imposed tariffs related to the fentanyl trade as well as his so-called “reciprocal tariffs” on U.S. trade partners around the world. But since then, a federal district court, the Court of International Trade, and a federal appeals court have all ruled that the tariffs are unconstitutional.