Trump's Electoral College Edge Evaporating
Early polls indicate that Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are tied nationwide. Does this mean Trump has a clear advantage in the battleground states that decide the Electoral College? Nate Cohn wrote for The New York Times.
There is an argument that Trump's Electoral College advantage has diminished.
In his first two presidential campaigns, Trump performed significantly better in the battleground states than he did nationwide, which enabled him to secure the presidency while losing the national vote in 2016.
However, there is an argument that his Electoral College advantage has diminished. In the midterm elections last fall, Democrats performed similarly in the crucial battleground states as they did nationwide.
Over the past year, state polls and a compilation of New York Times/Siena College surveys have shown Biden performing equally well or even better in the battleground states compared to the national average, with state results broadly resembling the midterms.
Recent polling and election results align with trends in national surveys, suggesting that the demographic factors contributing to Trump's Electoral College advantage may be diminishing.
He is currently enjoying significant support among nonwhite voters, who make up a larger portion of the electorate in noncompetitive states compared to competitive ones.
Meanwhile, Biden is gaining support among white voters in both white states and battleground states, as well as among minority voters. Trump is not receiving any help from his indictments, which has caused many GOP voters to abandon him.