Trump’s Falling Approval Ratings Fuel Chances of Another U.S Power Shift

President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings are increasing the likelihood that the 2026 midterm elections could extend one of the strongest trends in 21st-century American politics.

US voters could once again reshape control of Congress amid shifting political sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms. (Photo: Joyce N. Boghosian, The White House Flickr)

The president’s steady drop in popularity has boosted the chances that Democrats could recapture the House of Representatives in November — and possibly the Senate as well — Ronald Brownstein wrote in an analysis for CNN.

If Democrats flip either chamber, it would continue a period of political volatility that has seen control of the House, Senate, or White House change hands between the parties in 11 of the 13 elections since 2000.

By contrast, control of either congressional chamber or the White House changed hands in just five of the final 13 elections of the 20th century and only seven of the last 20 elections dating back to 1960.

Each time voters recoil against the party in power, political analysts tend to focus on the immediate decisions made by the president and congressional leaders.

But the pattern of rapid reversals has become so entrenched that it now appears driven less by tactical political choices than by broader economic, social, and electoral forces that show no sign of easing.

“Five or six years from now, if we are having this conversation, it will probably be 14 out of 16 elections with people voting for change,” said Doug Sosnik, a former White House political adviser to Bill Clinton who has tracked the trend.