Trump’s Tariff Loss of $1.7-T to Raise National Debt to $58-T by 2036

A Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs has cost the federal government $1.7 trillion in revenue through 2036, a new analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) showed, setting the US on a path toward a national debt of $58 trillion within the next decade if current spending trends continue, Nick Lichtenberg reported for Fortune.

CRFB said the court’s decision striking down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has altered the country’s fiscal trajectory toward larger debts and deficits.

CRFB said the court’s decision striking down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has altered the country’s fiscal trajectory toward larger debts and deficits.

Without that revenue, CRFB projects the national debt will climb to 125% of GDP — roughly $58 trillion — by fiscal year 2036, compared with a baseline projection of $56 trillion, or 120% of GDP, which assumed the IEEPA tariffs would remain in force.

“Deficits in that scenario will rise to 7.1% of GDP, or $3.3 trillion,” CRFB warned, versus $3.1 trillion under the original baseline.

In the wake of the ruling, the Trump administration moved to stanch the bleeding by invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a rarely used statute that allows a president to impose broad-based import surcharges for up to 150 days.

The administration set the emergency tariff at 10%, with Trump announcing plans to raise it to 15%, though the increase had not yet been formally enacted.

The CRFB analysis shows that at a 10% rate, the Section 122 tariff would generate about $35 billion over its 150-day window — replacing only 52% of the roughly $65 billion in IEEPA revenue that would have been collected during the same period.

Raising the rate to 15% improves the picture somewhat, producing about $50 billion and replacing roughly 77% of the near-term loss.