U.S. Will No Longer Have Money To Pay Its Bills Next Month, Says Think Tank

Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) director Martina McLennan said the group’s experts project that the debt limit “X Date” — the point at which the U.S. will no longer have enough money to pay its bills in full and on time — will most likely occur between August 15 and October 3, absent congressional action.

The risk of a U.S. default now aligns with the looming August recess.

This narrowed forecast reflects newly available data, particularly this month’s quarterly tax receipts, and underscores the urgent need for action on Capitol Hill. “Congress must address the debt limit ahead of the August recess,” said BPC CEO Margaret Spellings.

“With so many Americans worried about their own budgets and the state of the economy, Congress can’t afford to inject any additional uncertainty into the mix. They need to act soon to prioritize our nation’s financial stability and reassure global markets that we take this responsibility seriously.”

Stronger-than-expected tax revenues in April, coupled with steady inflows this quarter and a relatively stable economy, had initially bought Congress additional time.

But that buffer is quickly shrinking — and the risk of a U.S. default now aligns with the looming August recess.

As of June 18, the U.S. Treasury had $384 billion in cash on hand and $89 billion in “extraordinary measures” — legally permitted accounting tools — left to keep the government running.

If revenue shortfalls in July and August exceed expectations, the X Date could arrive as early as mid-August, well before the next major tax collection date on September 15.