UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA REPORT: PANDEMIC WILL LAST TWO YEARS

A new report by the University of Minnesota predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic will not depart anytime soon from the US heartland and warns that three scenarios are possible in the next two years.

In a May 9, 2020 report for Live Science by Rachael Rettner, researchers said information from eight previous flu pandemics since the 1700s and data from the current COVID-19 pandemic indicate that while the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus is not a type of influenza, “it has similarities with pandemic flu viruses — both are respiratory viruses to which the population has little to no previous immunity, and both can spread when people don't have symptoms.”

COVID-19 spreads quicker than the flu and asymptomatic transmission actually is more rampant than ordinary influenza. Between 60% and 70% of the population may need to be immune in order to achieve "herd immunity" to put a stop to the pandemic’s rampage.

The three potential scenarios for how the COVID-19 pandemic could play out follows: Scenario 1- In this scenario, the current wave of COVID-19 cases is followed by a series of smaller waves, or "peaks and valleys," that occur consistently over a one- to two-year period, but gradually diminish sometime in 2021; Scenario 2 -- Another possibility is that the initial wave of COVID-19 in the spring of 2020 is followed by a larger wave of cases in the fall or winter, as happened with the flu pandemic of 1918. Subsequently, one or more smaller waves could occur in 2021, and; Scenario 3-- Finally, the initial spring wave of COVID-19 could be followed by a "slow burn" of COVID-19 transmission and cases that doesn't follow a clear wave pattern. #coronavirusimpact #COVD19