China will account for less than half of global steel consumption in 2024 for the first time in six years, according to the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).

Worldsteel predicts Chinese steel consumption will decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2024, falling to 869 million tons, while demand in the rest of the world is expected to rise by 1.2% to reach 882 million tons. I Photo: Shandong Baogang Industry Co., Ltd. Facebook
The assessment comes as the decline in the country’s real estate sector continues to depress demand for the metal, Bloomberg News reported.
Worldsteel's forecasts highlight diverging prospects between China — the major driver of global demand growth for two decades — and steel demand hotspots elsewhere in the world, including South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.
"China’s at the structural peak in terms of steel demand," Simon Trott, chief executive for iron ore at Rio Tinto Group, the world’s largest supplier of the steelmaking ingredient, said during an address in Melbourne.
"The world will need more steel in the next 20 years than it’s used in the last 30, despite the sort of growth we’ve seen in China."
Worldsteel predicts Chinese steel consumption will decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2024, falling to 869 million tons, while demand in the rest of the world is expected to rise by 1.2% to reach 882 million tons.
China’s share is projected to shrink further in 2025, according to the association.
These figures reflect the end of China’s decades-long infrastructure and property boom, which has been a key driver of the nation's steel consumption.
However, they also point to a growing reason for China’s dramatic increase in steel exports this year, which have surged to their highest levels since 2016: rising demand in other regions.
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