Consumer Expectations on Inflation Back To Pre-Tariff Levels: Survey

Consumer expectations for future inflation have returned to pre-tariff levels, according to monthly survey data recently released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bloomberg News reported.

Economists remain concerned that President Trump’s trade policies could reignite price pressures.

The June survey showed median expectations for consumer price increases one year ahead fell to 3%, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 3% and 2.6%, respectively.

These expectations align with recent federal data showing inflation consistently coming in lower than economists had predicted.

Many of the aforementioned remain concerned that President Trump’s trade policies could reignite price pressures.

Separately, a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas projected that the Trump administration’s immigration policies could reduce U.S. economic growth by nearly one percentage point in 2025.

The report cited a steep drop in immigration at the southern border and increased deportations of foreign-born workers as key factors.

Under a “mass deportation” scenario—in which 1 million immigrants are removed annually by the end of 2027—GDP growth would fall by 0.9 percentage points by the end of 2025 and by 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2027, the researchers estimated.