Deploy Multinational Force To Deter Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

As Russia moves forces to the borders of Ukraine, the US and Europe are calling for their governments to help the Ukrainians defend themselves.

Photo Insert: UN Peacekeepers

Most of these commentators limit their recommendations to training and equipment support, but some would extend a security guarantee to Ukraine, even making it a member of NATO, Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reported for Breaking Defense.

CSIS analyzed what it would take to defend Ukraine, recognizing the country is far from the European centers of military power, has open and difficult to defend territory and faces Russia’s advantage of interior supply lines. The answer: Tens of billions of dollars for supplies and additional forces.

Defending Ukraine is a challenge in the best of cases. The largest country in Europe by area, it shares a 1,400-mile border with Russia, and the eastern half facing Russia lacks any natural defenses until the Dnipro River at the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

Another challenge is the state of Ukraine’s military; forces are battle-hardened and have grown to about 300,000 troops through conscription, but a lack of equipment and personnel limits further expansion. The US has already sent in infantry weapons and Javelin missiles to Ukraine aside from training its pilots on how to counter Russian jets.

One approach would be to station a small multinational force in Ukraine with the goal that their presence would deter Russia. This approach would be relatively low cost in peacetime and not a major change from what the US and NATO are doing already.

If conflict should occur, the forces would withdraw, await reinforcement, and eventually launch a counteroffensive. It would constitute a classic deterrence by punishment approach. The forward-deployed peacetime force would consist of the forward elements of a division headquarters, a security force assistance brigade (SFAB), and some NATO advisers and trainers.

The US and its allies would continue providing logistical and equipment support to the Ukrainian armed forces. One-time costs of such a defense would be about $850 million, mostly for infrastructure improvements to facilitate rapid reinforcement and about $1 billion a year for the additional forces and exercises.

European allies would spend an additional $150 million a year. One-time costs to the United States would be $27 billion for infrastructure and equipment and $11 billion annually for exercises and the expanded US force structure required to sustain these forward deployments — a massive investment that would require immense political will from Washington at a time when the American public is leery of sending forces overseas.

US allies would face costs of about $6 billion in one-time costs and $2 billion per year, costs which they would find politically difficult to sustain.

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