Despite Alliance With Putin, Xi Won't Pay For Russia's Ukraine Foray

As Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin declare there are “no limits” to Russia-China ties, Beijing has made it increasingly clear it supports Moscow’s position on Ukraine, Eugene Chausovsky, a non-resident fellow at Newlines Institute, wrote for Foreign Policy.

Photo Insert: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping

China’s foreign ministry says Russia’s “reasonable security concerns should be taken seriously and resolved.” For its part, Moscow has directly connected its standoff with the West to its relations with China, with Russian ambassador to the UK Andrey Kelin claiming on Jan. 30 that pressure from the United States and NATO is “pushing us to be closer” to Beijing.

Russia’s relationship with China is in the spotlight this week after Putin attended the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Winter Olympics on Feb. 4, the very Games the US and a cluster of other Western countries will boycott diplomatically.

It is these same Games that many (including US officials) have speculated will serve to delay a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the thinking that Putin would not want to upstage and steal the thunder from his increasingly close partner, Xi. So what does Putin plan to do in Ukraine once the Olympics end on Feb. 20, and what role could China play in such plans?

In answering such a question, it is necessary to acknowledge some concrete realities amid the escalatory rhetoric that has been taking place by both Moscow and the West in recent weeks.

Although the US has continued to warn that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent, this depends on Moscow’s willingness to risk the consequences. The military and political consequences are significant, yet hard to quantify, but the economic consequences would be straightforward and dramatic.

The Russian economy is about as big as that of New York’s. US President Joe Biden has clarified that any offensive actions in Ukrainian territory would be considered as an invasion. This is where the China factor becomes very important.

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