Fed Releases Beige Book Detailing Reg'l U.S. Economic Conditions
The Federal Reserve has released its first beige book of 2023, summarizing economic conditions through observations from the Fed’s 12 regional banks.
Photo Insert: Economists expect the economy to stagnate this year, posting growth of 0.2% by the end of 2023, worse than the 0.4% growth they forecast in October.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal forecast the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%, compared with 63% in October, Janet H. Cho reported for Barron’s Daily.
Economists in the Journal’s survey expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter and contract 0.4% in the second. They expect the economy to stagnate this year, posting growth of 0.2% by the end of 2023, worse than the 0.4% growth they forecast in October.
The survey also expects payrolls to drop 7,000 a month on average for 2023—a sharp reversal in forecasts from October’s survey, when the economists predicted employers would add 28,000 jobs a month over the course of the year.
In other economic news, the Commerce Department on Wednesday will release December retail sales measuring spending at stores, online, and in restaurants; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the producer price index (PPI) for December.
Economists expect PPI to be up 6.8% from the previous year. This week also continues to feature earnings from a variety of financial companies and Netflix, which reports on Thursday.
Analysts expect the streaming giant’s sales to soften slightly to $7.8 billion from the September quarter, with new paid net subscribers climbing to 4.5 million.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) also reported existing-home sales for December on Friday (Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023, in Manila), with analysts forecasting that segment of the housing market to weaken to 3.95 million from 4.1 million one month earlier, according to FactSet.