IEA Says Ukrainian Drone Strikes Are Degrading Russia’s Oil-Refining Capacity

Repeated Ukrainian drone strikes are increasingly degrading Russia’s oil-refining system, with international sanctions making it more difficult for Moscow to repair damaged facilities and obtain replacement equipment, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

A Ukrainian drone strike damages Russian energy infrastructure as repeated attacks and repair difficulties put pressure on the country’s oil-refining system. [Photo: Defense Forces of Ukraine]

The IEA has lowered its baseline outlook for Russian oil processing over the next 18 months to about 4 million barrels per day, roughly 30% below levels recorded before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The agency cited the growing frequency and precision of Ukrainian attacks as a major factor behind the deterioration.

“It now appears likely that the persistent drone strikes and the patchwork nature of repairs are having a cumulative negative effect and degrading the refining system,” the IEA said in its monthly oil market report, according to Bloomberg.

The attacks have become more frequent and precise. Ukrainian forces have used multiple drone waves against individual facilities, according to the IEA, overwhelming some defensive measures and increasingly hitting secondary-processing units.

The agency estimates that replacing some of those units could take six to eight months.

Russian refineries were hit at least 22 times in August, according to a Bloomberg tally cited by reports on the IEA assessment. That was the highest monthly total since the beginning of the full-scale war.

Sanctions are adding to the repair challenge by restricting Russia’s access to specialized equipment and replacement parts needed to restore damaged refining facilities.

The IEA warned that longer lead times for replacement parts and the approach of colder weather could further strain the Russian system.

The refining problems are also contributing to pressure on Russia’s domestic fuel market.

Reports have described fuel shortages and restrictions as Moscow attempts to maintain adequate supplies while refinery operations remain disrupted.

The IEA has also reduced its 2026 forecast for Russian oil supply by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million barrels per day, citing lower refinery runs among the factors affecting its outlook.