Invading Ukraine Would Be Too Costly For Putin

Many analysts in the United States and Europe are convinced that an invasion of Ukraine is now the most likely outcome of Russian troop movements near the border.

Photo Insert: A building after the military conflict in Donetsk, Ukraine

Some have gone further in concluding that Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to impose a Russian military occupation on all or part of Ukraine, Alexander Clarkson, a lecturer on German and European studies at King’s College London wrote for Foreign Policy.

They believe the Russian military will try to establish a new social order in Ukraine, replacing the government under President Volodymyr Zelensky with a puppet administration.

There is little doubt that the build-up of what are now around 80 battalion tactical groups, which include tanks, artillery, and around 130,000 troops, represents a profound threat to Ukraine. The apparent presence of airborne military units and amphibious assets indicate how multifaceted any military onslaught could become.

Perhaps most worrying are the movements of Rosgvardiya detachments, or Russian National Guard troops, who would be responsible for providing security on territory behind the frontlines, managing prisoners of war, and securing logistics. These are all potential signals that a comprehensive plan for occupation may be in place.

Yet, any discussion of potential Russian action toward Ukraine needs to take into account the resources available to the Russian state, and the history of previous Russian, Soviet, and other great-power military occupations.

And here the picture becomes less clear-cut than a lot of speculation over the potential occupation of Ukraine acknowledges. Russia has had its nose bloodied by intervening in Afghanistan, Syria, several African nations, as well as in former Soviet republics.

Its economy has been hobbled to the extent that it could not mass produce warplanes, missiles, and military equipment for its largely conscript army. The cost of getting mired in Ukraine is huge.

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