James Talarico Takes 5-Point Lead Over Ken Paxton in New Texas Poll

Democrat James Talarico has taken a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a new SoCal Strategies poll conducted Sept. 12-13.

Texas state Rep. James Talarico has moved ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in a new poll of the state's 2026 U.S. Senate race. [Photo: James Talarico Facebook]

Talarico leads Paxton 50% to 45% among 649 likely voters, with 5% undecided. The result represents a sharp reversal from SoCal Strategies' June survey, when Paxton led 49% to 47%.

The poll shows Talarico making gains among several voter groups.

His support among Hispanic voters increased from 10% in June to 38%, while his backing among independents rose from 10% to 45%.

Talarico also received support from 12% of self-identified Republicans and 46% of voters aged 18 to 29, according to the survey.

The results are notable in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide elections for decades. However, a single poll does not establish that Talarico is now the favorite to win the race.

SoCal Strategies noted that Talarico's advantage appears to be coming from persuasion rather than a major turnout difference.

The pollster also said Republicans were less decided than Democrats in the survey, suggesting the current margin could still change.