Macron To Beat Rivals In April 2022 French Presidential Race: The Economist

The Economist has predicted as early as February 5, 2022, that French President Emmanuel Macron had a 79% chance of beating his three rivals in the April presidential race. A month later, its statistical model said Macron’s odds rose to 97%.

Photo Insert: If the incumbent Macron succeeds wins, he will be the first president to pull off re-election since Jacques Chirac achieved the feat two decades ago.

“If Macron succeeds, he will be the first president to win re-election since Jacques Chirac achieved the feat two decades ago,” the magazine argued, and Vladimir Putin’s reckless and bloody invasion of Ukraine helped entrench him.

He is up against the nationalist-populist Marine Le Pen, whose chances of winning on her third stab at the presidency is slim and none, The Economist suggested last month, but she is still much better than the ultra-rightist Eric Zemmour.

Valérie Pécresse, the French center-right hopeful, is fighting on after winning the party primary in December 2021 but her chances of winning against Macron is as dark as Le Pen’s.

Neither is Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, the Socialist bet, about to win the first round on April 10 and the run-off on April 24, with polls showing she would win only 4% in the first round. This result would not only disqualify her from the run-off but also fail to meet the 5% threshold for taxpayers to reimburse half of her campaign spending.

“What has happened to the once-mighty French left? Under the Fifth Republic, the grand old Socialist Party has provided two presidents (Francois Mitterrand and François Hollande) and landmark social legislation, including the abolition of the death penalty in 1981 and the legalization of gay marriage in 2013,” The Economist mused.

A decade ago it controlled the presidency, both houses of parliament, and most regions and big cities. In Hidalgo, it has an internationally respected mayor, praised for turning over swathes of central Paris to cyclists and joggers.

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