MYANMAR’S ECONOMIC WOES MAY PUSH JUNTA TO END CRISIS

The military junta engaged in repressing the people in Myanmar will not listen to any foreign government‘s counsel to end the violence and free imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi and other opposition figures.

Writing for Kyodo News, Ko Hirano and Junko Horiuchi, said that after global revulsion at the February 1 coup that ousted the duly-elected government, junta leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing told ASEAN leaders he would consider restoring democracy once “stability” is achieved.

It was the military, called Tatmadaw in Myanmar, that triggered the upheaval after mounting a coup on the basis of a fraudulent claim that the recent election in which 80% voted for the National League for Democracy (NLD) was “fraudulent.”

"At this stage, there is a limit to what diplomatic efforts Japan and other countries can make to get the military to change course, as its immediate priority is not to lend an ear to what they say but to consolidate its grip on power by getting rid of NLD forces," said Yoshihiro Nakanishi, a Myanmar expert at Kyoto University.

Nakanishi, an associate professor of the university's Center for Southeast Asian Studies, said in an interview that the standoff between the junta and the National Unity Government (NUG), set up in opposition to military rule and led by Suu Kyi associates, may last for a year or longer. Nevertheless, Nakanishi argues, factors such as economic paralysis and a full conflict with ethnic minority insurgents in border areas may propel the generals to change their minds.

In fact, the sharp contraction in the Myanmar economy -- triggered by strikes by workers and civil servants, as well as the halt of aid by foreign donors and the suspension of trade and investment by foreign businesses -- could create such a possibility. Some analysts even say the crisis-hit country stands on the verge of becoming a failed state.

"Japan should insist on dialogue but always with the goal being the restoration of democracy, with a price to be paid if the junta does not move substantively in that direction," said Brad Glosserman, deputy director of the Center for Rule-making Strategies at Tama University in Tokyo.

"Japan should apply pressure in concert with the West, but it can do so in a different mode and means," Glosserman said in an email, suggesting that Tokyo persuade the generals while avoiding publicly humiliating the Tatmadaw.

Along with such a division of labor with the Western powers, former diplomats recommend that Japan deal with the Myanmar crisis in coordination with ASEAN, China, and South Korea in the so-called ASEAN-plus-three framework.

The recommendation is part of policy proposals over Myanmar a group of former Japanese diplomats including Yasushi Akashi, a former U.N. Undersecretary-General, filed with the Foreign Ministry on April 23.

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