Peace Expert Claims There Will Be No Victors In Russia-Ukraine War

Even though it is impossible to predict the precise political outcomes of this Russia-Ukraine war, sketching out some possible scenarios might still help to gain clarity about policy options and risks, peace expert Dr. Alexander Graef wrote for The Telegraph.

Photo Insert: Wladimir Klitschko and his brother, Vitali, are among the Ukrainian athletes fighting for the survival of their country.

Any diplomatic solution requires Putin to back down from his maximalist goals. He would need to settle for some form of Ukrainian neutrality and accept that he cannot control the country beyond the Donbas region.

On Monday two teams of negotiators from Ukraine and Russia met for the first time in Belarus. After five hours of talks the two sides reportedly found “certain points where we can predict common positions.”

“Ultimately, Ukraine is inferior from a military perspective. Western weapon deliveries will not change this situation. Capturing Kyiv and achieving regime change in Ukraine therefore remains a likely outcome. This would be a Pyrrhic victory for Russia, however. It requires heavy fighting in urban areas, killing thousands of civilians in the process. The destruction of Ukrainian statehood would cement Putin’s pariah status and Russia’s international isolation. At the same time, political control over Ukraine would face permanent insurgency warfare and civilian resistance, thereby increasing the costs for Russia. Ultimately, Putin’s war will have no winners. It is already a disaster for Ukrainians. The European security order as we know it has collapsed. The war will soon also become a catastrophe for Russians. Most Western sanctions will be permanent so life in Russia will not be the same for years to come."

Faced with a growing number of casualties and crippling Western sanctions, members of Putin’s inner circle might come to realize that the war cannot be won at reasonable costs.

A palace coup could remove Putin from power. New Russian leaders might then negotiate a truce and prepare an orderly retreat. This outcome would shake up Russian domestic politics because Putin currently fulfills the role of an arbiter between different elite factions.

Over the past 60 years there have been two attempted intra-elite coups. In October 1964 Soviet General Secretary Nikita Khrushchev was ousted. His defeat followed poor political judgment in the Cuban missile crisis two years before.

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