Polymarket Traders See Low Odds of Iranian Attack on Undersea Internet Cables

Traders on cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket have assigned a low probability to Iran or its allied groups physically damaging undersea internet cables, despite renewed threats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Aniket Verma reported for Benzinga.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard warns about undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz as prediction markets assess the risk of an attack. [Photo: Shayne Coplan X]

Polymarket participants placed the probability of Iran or an allied group, including Lebanon-based Hezbollah or Yemen’s Houthi movement, damaging undersea cable infrastructure by the end of October at 4%.

The probability of such an incident by the end of the year was reported at 12%.

The market estimates followed a warning from IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi, who drew attention to undersea communications cables running through the Strait of Hormuz.

“All of the world’s internet and commercial data depend on them,” Mohebi said, according to Al Jazeera.

His remarks followed warnings from Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei that a renewed conflict could put critical technology infrastructure, including undersea cables, data centers and artificial intelligence facilities, at risk.

The prediction market's odds reflect traders’ expectations rather than a verified assessment of the likelihood of an attack. No conclusion about Iran’s operational intentions can be drawn from the market price alone.