Putin Can't Quit His Bloody Ukraine Aggression, Say Analysts

Russian President Vladimir Putin has landed in an unenviable position. His country has the resources to inflict damage on Ukraine in perpetuity.

Photo Insert: Russian President Vladimir Putin doing an interview with Rossyia 1 TV channel

But because the first phase of the war has been so costly for Russia and because Ukraine’s military is mounting such stiff resistance, Russia faces serious difficulty achieving anything meaningful on the battlefield without committing much more manpower than it currently has available, Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman reported for Foreign Affairs.

Calling up large numbers of reservists while putting Russian society openly on a war footing solves the problem, in theory, Kimmage and Lipman asserted, but it is something for which the Russian public is fundamentally unprepared.

Putin has referred to the war in Ukraine as a “special military operation” and held only one rally in support of his adventure. Full-out mobilization, which would make war an inescapable fact of Russian life, would revolutionize the regime Putin has constructed since coming to power in 2000.

Putinism has been a formula: the government discouraged people from meddling in politics while leaving them mostly on their own, and the people readily surrendered their responsibility for decision making.

In 2014, he could achieve his military aims in Ukraine without radically redefining Russian politics. That is no longer an option.

If Putin decides to mobilize, he will be altering the deal he’s made with the public and potentially destabilizing his regime. As the US watches from the sidelines, it may feel tempted to encourage Russians to turn against Putin.

Without having much or perhaps any real influence on Russian public opinion, however, the Biden administration can do its best to avoid costly mistakes. Most important will be its effort to understand how and why Russians think what they do. In the long-term conflict that is unfolding, curiosity will be a precious commodity.

For the first 10 years or so of Putin’s time in power, a “no-participation pact” between the Kremlin and the Russian public had been in effect. It was an unspoken agreement between ruler and ruled: “Don’t rock the boat, and you will enjoy stability, relative prosperity, and opportunities for self-fulfillment or enrichment.”

But both parties breached this pact in December 2011. Upset by Putin’s return to the presidency and rigged parliamentary elections, protesters chanted: “Russia without Putin.”

The Kremlin then chipped away at the rights and freedoms that Russian society had enjoyed until then, pitting the patriotic majority against those the regime considered excessively “modernized” and “Westernized.”

After this clash, a version of normalcy returned, but Putin’s popularity declined and the regime’s legitimacy began to erode. This new chapter in Putin’s presidency began—circa 2011—on a sour note. It continues today as Russians start attacking Putin’s bloody war.

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