Putin's Tactic Of Seizing 2 More Ukrainian Regions Would Fail: Analyst

Mao Zedong should have been good reading for Russian President Vladimir Putin since the late Chinese leader always spoke of fighting a just war, admonishing his commanders that those who make trouble always fail and get defeated on the battlefield.

Photo Insert: Putin failed to turn his Ukraine military adventure into a just war, eventually making him a subject of mockery as Vladimir the Terrible.

Putin failed to make his military adventure in Ukraine a just war, eventually making him a subject of mockery as Vladimir the Terrible.

Dara Massicot, a senior researcher at Rand Corp., says in an essay for the July-August 2022 issue of Foreign Affairs that Putin committed a big mistake by launching an invasion with too many troops who never knew what the Russian leader was really up to, losing substantial numbers of troops, armor, and aircraft for an adventure that would have “liberated” Kyiv in three days.

“The initial error was caused by the Kremlin’s prewar delusions. Moscow was overconfident in its intelligence, in the ability of its agents to influence events and politics inside Ukraine, and in its own armed forces. It underestimated Ukraine’s capabilities and will to fight. And it failed to account for a massive expansion of Western support to Kyiv. But although Russia has had six months to learn from these mistakes, it appears poised to once again commit its depleted forces to an untenable mission: Annexing and holding Ukraine’s Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia Provinces, or oblasts. Holding this territory will require substantial amounts of manpower and armored equipment—particularly given that the regions have contested frontlines and that Russian forces in each experience organized partisan attacks,” Massicot argued.

“The Kremlin may continue with its plans anyway, concluding that by annexing these four regions, it can force a rapid end to this phase of the war, stymie Western support for Ukraine, and buy itself time to repair and regenerate its military. If Moscow cannot marshal enough resources to support this goal, an exhausted Russian military will struggle to hold a contested frontline of about 620 miles. Even if the Kremlin pulls all levers available, declaring a general mobilization to call up sufficient armored equipment and trained personnel, that process would still take time. Russian forces, then, are likely to face very significant resource constraints in the next year or two. This may provide Ukrainian forces with an opportunity to push back against Russia’s efforts to hold all four oblasts,” the analyst concluded.

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