Putin's Wars Since 2008 Pushed Sweden, Finland To Join NATO: Carl Bildt

President Vladimir Putin changed Russia in 2008 when he invaded Georgia and showed everyone that he will use military force to pursue his political ambitions. This change was not lost on Sweden and Finland, pushing them to strengthen their armed neutrality.

Photo Insert: With Sweden’s advanced Gripen fighters added to the F35s now ordered or under delivery to Norway, Denmark, and Finland, more than 250 highly modern fighters will be available in the region as a whole.

Sweden and Finland used to be one nation, with the latter gaining independence in 1809 after six centuries of union, former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt wrote for Foreign Affairs magazine.

In 2014, Russia sought to prevent Ukraine from pursuing an association agreement with the European Union (EU), financed Russian-speaking separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and invaded and annexed Crimea.

This year, Putin invaded Ukraine but failed to approach Kyiv in his bid to oust Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Russian leader and his acolytes have made it clear that they wish to replace the post-1989 security order in Europe with arrangements that impinge on the sovereignty of other countries.

And just as the collapse of the Soviet Union led Sweden and Finland to reconsider their relationships with Europe, the current political earthquake has prompted them to reconsider fundamental elements of their security policies, including their relationships with NATO.

It is impossible to predict what kind of country Russia will be in the decades ahead, but what is likely to emerge is a country that is both weaker in economic and military terms and more desperate and dangerous in political terms. The Putin regime—whether he or one of his associates is at the helm—is unlikely to give up its imperial ambitions as long as it remains in power.

“This reality fundamentally changes the security considerations of both Helsinki and Stockholm. Increased defense spending is clearly one part of the answer to the new security situation. Both Sweden and Denmark have announced that they will increase their defense spending to two percent of GDP, Sweden by 2028.

Norway, Finland, and the three Baltic states are more or less there already. Since 2014, Finland and Sweden have also dramatically expanded their military cooperation with NATO, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

When Finland and Sweden join NATO, the security architecture of northern Europe will change. Each country brings considerable military capabilities to the alliance: Finland maintains an army with very substantial reserves, and Sweden has strong air and naval forces, particularly submarine forces.

With Sweden’s advanced Gripen fighters added to the F35s now ordered or under delivery to Norway, Denmark, and Finland, more than 250 highly modern fighters will be available in the region as a whole.

Operated together, they will be a substantial force. Integrated control of the entire area will make a defense of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania easier, since Swedish territory and airspace, in particular, are important for such efforts. This will strengthen deterrence and make a conflict there less likely, according to studies published by both Sweden and Finland.

But perhaps the most important consequence of Finnish and Swedish accession to NATO would be to increase the alliance’s political strength as the pillar of the defense of Europe and the transatlantic area.

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