Putin Seeking Xi's Aid Makes Russia China's Junior Partner

Leaks by US officials have exposed Russia’s asking China for military aid, including drones, support vehicles, and meals-ready-to-eat (MREs) and China purportedly seemed receptive about the requests, James Palmer reported for China Brief.

Photo Insert: Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping

The issue appears to be the main topic of the seven-hour meeting between senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Rome this week.

Palmer argued the odds of China providing direct military support to Russia seem to be low as it is still grappling with the omicron outbreak and the slumping economy. Adding Russia’s invasion to their woes is flat-out wrong as Beijing stands to gain little from the conflict other than cementing strong ties with Russia at the expense of the rest of the world that considers Russian President Vladimir Putin as a pariah, Palmer pointed out.

Moreover, China itself has been tagged as a villain for bullying Taiwan, and supporting another villain ruins whatever little goodwill China has left in much of Europe and Asia. It is not in China’s interest to embrace Russia and lose the European Union (EU.) Chinese firms have been cautious about crossing the US over Russia sanctions; they will continue to be unless Beijing instructs otherwise.

Moscow hasn’t even been able to get much closer allies on board, such as Kazakhstan, where the tottering regime was shored up by Russian troops recently, and even Belarus, which appears to be backing away from the war.

It would be a strange time for Beijing to get involved. Any current enthusiasm shown by the Chinese side is likely deliberately exaggerated by US leakers to add pressure, or there may be a misreading of the Chinese position.

Furthermore, the idea that Beijing can be persuaded to put pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine or that it will directly participate in sanctioning Russia seems even more unlikely. Beijing has no desire to burn diplomatic capital with Moscow to aid Washington or the EU, and it is resistant to any pressure to bend its foreign or economic policy.

There appear to be three broad groups operating here. The first is China’s diplomatic establishment, which sees the conflict as a danger to steer clear of and to some degree is aware of China’s past pledges to Ukraine. The second is the nationalist entrepreneurs both in the media and inside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who have been rewarded in their careers for taking aggressive anti-US positions.

Finally, there is the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) itself, from command staff to professors at military academies, who have been nourished by conspiracy theories and nationalism from their Russian counterparts.

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