Recession Prediction Becoming A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Bloomberg

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) puts the odds of a U.S. recession this year at 40%, while the median forecaster surveyed by Bloomberg sees a 45% chance, Jeannette Neumann reported.

“The price of everything from Kit Kats and diapers to cars will go up,” warn CEOs.

Market-based predictions are even gloomier, with Polymarket placing the odds at 55%.

Some business leaders are already calling it a reality: Southwest Airlines’ CEO recently declared that a U.S. recession has begun. Meanwhile, in Europe, opinions are mixed.

The European Central Bank’s chief economist said a eurozone recession is “unlikely,” but the president of Germany’s Bundesbank warned that rising tariffs could tip Germany into one, Gabrielle Coppola reported for Bloomberg News.

U.S. companies are already bracing for the fallout.

“The price of everything from Kit Kats and diapers to cars will go up,” warn CEOs, as many consumer goods companies plan to pass tariff costs onto customers, Molly Smith reported for Bloomberg News.