Salceda Speaks, Everyone Listens

When former Congressman Joey Salceda stepped onto the floor at Westin Manila last Monday morning, it quickly became clear this was not just another Monday Circle forum.

Economist and former Congressman Joey Salceda delivers a razor-sharp Post-SONA Briefing at the Monday Circle Forum in Westin Manila, marking the quiet launch of his new policy think tank, Salceda Research. (Illustrator: Riz)

What followed was a wide-ranging yet sharply analytical Post-SONA briefing that also quietly marked the soft (unofficial) launch of Salceda Research through the Institute for Risk and Strategic Studies, his new policy think tank.

There were no flashy rollouts or PR gimmicks. Just Salceda, a set of slides, and 90 minutes of dense but gripping economic insight delivered to a room filled with bankers, stockbrokers, AI evangelists, business leaders, policy minds, and members of the media.

It was, in true Salceda fashion, part briefing, part brain dump, and part economic therapy session for a country trying to make sense of growth figures that do not quite translate into lived experience.

Trump 2.0

Salceda opened with what he called “the burning issue” of Trump-era tariffs, zeroing in on the so-called “1 percent panic” that had triggered outsized concern among exporters and analysts.

The facts, as he laid them out, were far more nuanced than the headlines suggested.

Salceda unpacked the “1 percent panic” over Trump-era tariffs, showing that only 27% of Philippine exports were affected and outlining the case for a U.S.-PH free trade agreement. (Photo: The White House)

Only 27 percent of Philippine exports were covered by the original 20 percent tariff threat. 

The rest, due to diplomatic groundwork of the Marcos administration done earlier this year, were protected under Annex II of Executive Order 14257 and the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement.

The effective tariff rate barely moved, slipping from 6.65 to 6.33 percent after negotiations. For comparison, Indonesia is still grappling with 12.45 percent.

Still, Salceda did not minimize the cost.

Exporters are facing nearly $600 million in new burdens, equivalent to ₱56.36 billion in lost exports, ₱1.74 billion in lost government revenue, and a GDP decline of ₱22.54 billion. Job losses could reach 19,776 in export sectors and 6,118 in import-dependent industries.

Salceda proposes a ₱6.2 billion STEER plan, offering wage subsidies, TESDA-led upskilling, and unemployment insurance to shield workers and exporters from tariff impacts.

Instead of handwringing, he proposed a solution: Support for Tariff-Exposed Enterprises and Employees Recovery or STEER, a ₱6.2 billion recovery plan that includes wage subsidies, TESDA-led upskilling, and safety nets for displaced workers.

It was a calm, technocratic response in a climate of reactive policymaking.

But Salceda was playing a longer game. The tariff conversation, he suggested, should be seen as an entry point into something far more consequential: a full-blown Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United States. The numbers were compelling.

If a U.S.-Philippines FTA is realized, it could unlock over $730 million in tariff savings for local exporters, with net gains to the economy reaching as high as ₱35 billion.

The geopolitical dividends, he argued, are equally significant. The Mutual Defense Treaty now explicitly covers the South China Sea.

The trip also unlocked access to new U.S. Indo-Pacific funding streams, including $4 billion for security assistance, $1.2 billion for a resilience fund targeting cyber capacity and port infrastructure (with Subic and Palawan identified), and $1.2 billion for munitions replenishment, where the Philippines could participate through co-production agreements.

Add to this $21 billion in U.S. investment pledges, from BlackRock’s 40 percent acquisition of Aboitiz InfraCapital to $500 million earmarked for hospital development, and Salceda’s term “one percent plus plus” takes shape.

Not all the U.S. developments were good news. He flagged a proposed 1 percent U.S. tax on OFW remittances and BPO revenues, urging Philippine officials to secure exemptions by ensuring local banks in the U.S. are classified as qualified remittance providers.

“Ginhawa is missing”

One of the more sobering moments in the briefing came when Salceda addressed why so many Filipinos feel disconnected from the country’s growth narrative.

Since 2020, GDP has expanded by 91 percent. Yet food prices have outpaced wage growth, and public discontent continues to fester. His point was simple but cutting: the numbers are moving, but the people are not feeling it.

“The numbers are moving, but the people aren’t feeling it,” Salceda said, pointing to fiscal inefficiencies and unspent public funds as barriers to real progress. (Photo: PJ Lanot)

He cited ₱726 billion in idle LGU cash balances and chronic under-disbursement of ODA and PPP funds as key culprits. Infrastructure delays, unspent capital, and fiscal inefficiencies have sapped the momentum from what should be a high-growth cycle.

Meanwhile, debt servicing now consumes 13.4 percent of the national budget, up from just 10 percent in 2019.

The Fix

His proposed fix combined practical reforms with political courage. Salceda pushed for the listing of major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) such as PAGCOR and DBP to deepen capital markets and inject discipline into public sector governance.

He flagged contradictions in renewable energy subsidies, warning that without progressive tax reform, the country risks hurting the poor while trying to save the planet.

Coal, he noted, remains the country’s price shock absorber and should not be dismissed prematurely, especially when renewables are being funded through regressive taxation.

In one of the briefing’s boldest moments, Salceda defended coal’s transitional role, cautioning against regressive renewable subsidies without tax reform. He also urged the government to leverage the recent International Court of Justice ruling on climate justice which now allows countries like the Philippines to seek accountability from high-emitting nations.

Salceda’s take on the recent International Court of Justice ruling on climate justice was among the most forward-looking in the room. He welcomed it as a potential lever for countries like the Philippines to seek accountability from high-emitting nations.

But he cautioned that global justice must come with local sense. If developed nations will not offer concessional financing, poorer ones will be forced to choose between sustainability and survival.

He closed with a call for institutional readiness. Not because it is trendy, but because it is necessary. In a world being remade by data, disease, and disruption, capability is the new currency.

The Philippines, he said, must prepare to meet global standards in artificial intelligence, vaccine research, and nuclear energy regulation. 

This includes supporting institutions like the Virology and Vaccine Institute of the Philippines, enhancing AI and cybersecurity capacity, and building the Philippine Atomic Energy Regulatory Authority.

Final Line

There were no applause lines. No soundbites crafted for social media. Just a not-so-elderly statesman showing he still has ideas worth listening to.

Salceda urges listing PAGCOR, DBP, and PPA, pushing capital market reform alongside trade strategy and energy pragmatism in his Post-SONA Monday Circle address.

As the presentation wrapped, Salceda left the audience with a final line that lingered long after the screens dimmed: “The Filipino is worth trying for.” 

It is the kind of sentence that might be glossed over in a transcript, but not in a room full of people who came to think. It captured the soul of the Monday Circle: optimistic but not naïve, technical yet deeply human.