U.S. Cattle Tally Shows Population Isn’t Rising; Soaring Beef Prices Likely To Stay

The latest U.S. cattle tally offered little relief for consumers paying record beef prices, even as the cycle of herd liquidation appears to be nearing its end, Gerson Freitas Jr. reported for Bloomberg News.

The number of heifers in feedlots remained relatively stable compared to steers, suggesting ranchers are not meaningfully retaining females for breeding.

There were about 94.2 million cattle and calves in the U.S. as of July 1—the lowest midyear count on record in data going back to 1973, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The number of animals placed in feedlots for weight gain before slaughter also plunged to the lowest level since 2017, the USDA said in a separate report.

A severe shortage in the world’s largest beef-producing country has driven cattle costs sharply higher, wiping out billions in profits for companies like JBS NV and Tyson Foods Inc., while pushing beef prices at grocery stores to record levels.

Ranchers have been shrinking their herds for years due to a combination of high interest rates, expensive feed, and persistent drought.

Although record cattle prices and improved pasture conditions this year have sparked speculation that herd rebuilding may be underway, the latest USDA figures offer “very little indication of much herd rebuilding or anything very aggressive,” said Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.

The number of heifers in feedlots remained relatively stable compared to steers, suggesting ranchers are not meaningfully retaining females for breeding.

“We are probably stabilizing cattle numbers, but we’re not growing yet,” Peel said.

A continued decline in the number of cows raised specifically for breeding underscores that a full rebuild has yet to begin—prolonging losses for meat producers and encouraging more consumers to shift toward cheaper proteins like pork and chicken, according to Benjamin Theurer, an analyst at Barclays Plc.

“We are probably stabilizing cattle numbers, but we’re not growing yet,” Peel said.

A continued decline in the number of cows raised specifically for breeding underscores that a full rebuild has yet to begin—prolonging losses for meat producers and encouraging more consumers to shift toward cheaper proteins like pork and chicken, according to Benjamin Theurer, an analyst at Barclays Plc.