U.S.-China Rivalry to Persist, Analyst Argues

In the U.S., bipartisan consensus is painfully hard to achieve — except on the issue of China.

Trump and Xi may want to calm the waters in the short term, but structural realities mean that U.S.-Chinese competition is here to stay. (Photo: The White House) 

Even as American political polarization has intensified over the past eight years, both Republicans and Democrats have agreed that an increasingly powerful Beijing poses economic, technological, and security threats to Washington and its allies, wrote Mira Rapp-Hooper, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, in an analysis for Foreign Affairs.

Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Chinese entities, levied tariffs on U.S. imports of Chinese goods, restricted the country’s access to semiconductors, and even labeled Beijing’s actions in Xinjiang as genocide against the Uyghur people.

The Biden administration kept — and in many cases expanded — these policies. It took the Trump team’s diagnosis and built a strategy to comprehensively address the China challenge through domestic investment, cooperation with allies, and hard-nosed diplomacy.

When Trump returned to office four years later, China was one of the few areas in which analysts expected continuity.

Yet Trump has dashed these expectations. In fact, since starting his second term, he and his closest advisers have been determined to build a commercially based détente with Beijing.

The president imposed crippling tariffs on China in April but quickly lowered them.

He has loosened multiple export restrictions at Beijing’s behest and sought a leader-level meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in hopes of moving the two countries closer to a trade deal and overall rapprochement.

Those hoping for a major shift in U.S.-Chinese relations may be disappointed. Despite Trump’s attempt to court Xi — and Xi’s own desire to take maximum advantage of Trump’s overtures — any truce will likely be temporary.

China is highly unlikely to adjust its global ambitions, and there are many ways an attempted détente could unravel. Trump and Xi may want to calm the waters in the short term, but structural realities mean that U.S.-Chinese competition is here to stay.